Restaurant Survivability Simulator

A Monte Carlo tool for forecasting restaurant viability.

Outcome Summary

Chance to Thrive

--%

(>120% Start Capital)

Chance to Survive

--%

(Not Bankrupt, <120%)

Chance to Fail

--%

(Bankrupt in 5 Yrs)

Distribution of Final Capital

Shows the range of possible outcomes from 2,500 trials. The peak represents the most common result.

Bankrupt Median: $-- Max: $--

Scenario Assumptions

Starting Capital
$--
Base Revenue/mo
$--
Volatility
--%
Fixed Costs/mo
$--
Variable Cost %
--%
Scenario
--

Controls & Scenarios

Cost Assumptions

Range: $0 – $1,000,000

Range: $0 – $200,000 (e.g., Rent, Salaries)

Range: 0% – 100% (e.g., Food, Hourly Labor)

Revenue Assumptions

Range: $0 – $200,000

Range: 0% – 100%. Standard deviation of revenue shocks.

Simulation Settings

"Descending" models a 0.5% revenue decay per month.

Range: 100 – 10,000. More trials = more accurate.